AGP Executive Report

Brazil’s Environmental Stakes: Voters choose between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a tight runoff, with sharply different climate agendas and the Amazon’s future at stake. Brazil’s emissions fell 6% in 2025 as deforestation slowed, while the Supreme Court suspended a permit for Belo Sun’s proposed Amazon gold mine. Extreme Weather: El Niño floods in Argentina have killed two and displaced more than 2,000 people. Hurricane Vance is intensifying off Mexico’s Pacific coast, with forecasts warning it could become a major storm. Water and Conservation: Greenpeace reported fecal contamination in Yucatán’s drinking water, linked to expanding pig farming; critics are also seeking to halt road work in the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve. Regional Action: Caribbean countries are pressing for fairer climate finance, while Brazil has created a marine reserve off Rio de Janeiro to protect biodiversity and support artisanal fishing.

Storms and Floods: Hurricane Vance strengthened to Category 2 off Mexico and could reach major-hurricane status. In Argentina, El Niño-related floods forced more than 2,000 people to evacuate. Brazil’s Amazon: As voters head to a tight presidential runoff, the region’s future is at stake. Brazil’s emissions fell 6% in 2025 as deforestation eased, but a new study finds the Amazon now emits more carbon than it absorbs. Mining Under Scrutiny: Brazil’s Supreme Court suspended a permit for a major Amazon gold mine, while a separate gold project’s license was temporarily halted. In Mexico’s Yucatán, Greenpeace found fecal contamination in drinking water amid expanding illegal pig farming. Biodiversity at Risk: Nearly all shallow-water coral reefs are classified as critically endangered, including the Mesoamerican reef. At COP17, Latin American and Caribbean representatives are pressing for stronger biodiversity protections and financing.

Extreme Weather: More than 2,000 people have fled flooding in northeastern Argentina as El Niño drives river levels higher; officials warn flooding could continue for months. Hurricane Vance has strengthened to Category 2 off Mexico and may intensify further as it approaches the Pacific coast. NASA says the developing El Niño could surpass the powerful 1997 and 2015 events. Brazil’s Amazon at the Ballot: Sunday’s presidential runoff could shape environmental enforcement. Officials fear a Flávio Bolsonaro win could revive pressure on regulators, while the Amazon is emitting more carbon than it absorbs, according to a new study. Deforestation has recently fallen to its lowest level since 1988, but that progress may be at stake. Protected Areas: Environmental groups are asking Mexican courts to halt road construction in Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve, where work has reportedly cleared mangroves and forest and altered water flows. Caribbean Biodiversity: CARICOM is calling for stronger data and monitoring to track conservation progress and guide funding.

Extreme Weather: Hurricane Vance strengthened off Mexico and could rapidly intensify as it approaches the Pacific coast, while forecasters warn a powerful El Niño is raising risks of floods, drought and food shortages across the region. Amazon at the Ballot Box: Brazil’s runoff could reshape forest policy. The Amazon’s deforestation rate has hit a record low, but a new study finds the region is emitting more carbon than it absorbs, with fires and forest damage among the concerns. Water Under Pressure: Greenpeace reports fecal contamination in Yucatán wells and cenotes; pork producers dispute its conclusions, underscoring calls for a broader investigation into pollution sources. Regional Cooperation: A new Pan-Amazon bioeconomy platform maps public programs across nine countries, aiming to improve coordination, access to finance and support for businesses that rely on standing forests.

Amazon Carbon: Brazil’s Amazon emitted an average 1.17 billion tonnes more CO₂ a year than it absorbed in 2010–24, a study finds, with fires the main driver. Record-low deforestation has not yet made the rainforest a carbon sink. Brazil’s Runoff: Indigenous communities face barriers reaching polling places ahead of Sunday’s vote; a court ordered the federal government to provide transport and other support. The result could reshape Amazon protections. El Niño Alert: The UN warns the strengthening climate event could drive millions more people into acute food insecurity in 2027, as parts of South America face heightened risks of floods, heat and drought. Water and Mining: Greenpeace says faecal contamination is polluting drinking water in Mexico’s Yucatán, linked to illegal pig farms. Brazil’s Supreme Court has suspended a licence for the Volta Grande project while Indigenous land claims remain unresolved.

El Niño Emergency: The WMO warns tropical Pacific temperatures could reach 3.8°C above average by December, raising risks of extreme weather. Drought has already damaged crops and dried wells across Central America; the UN has released $50 million to prepare for the crisis. Amazon at a Crossroads: Brazil reports record-low deforestation, but fires rose 62% in October, and a study finds the rainforest is now releasing more carbon dioxide than it absorbs. Indigenous Rights: Brazil’s Supreme Court suspended a licence for Belo Sun’s Volta Grande project as an Indigenous settlement awaits approval. Water Safety: Greenpeace says fecal contamination is polluting drinking wells and sinkholes in Mexico’s Yucatán, where illegal pig farming is expanding. Disaster Readiness: The World Bank approved $500 million to help Mexico respond more quickly to emergencies.

El Niño Alert: The UN warns the Pacific could warm to 3.8°C above average as an unusually powerful El Niño peaks late this year. Aid groups say just $450 million is available for preparation and response, far below past funding needs. Mexico Resilience: The World Bank approved $500 million to help Mexico prepare for natural disasters, climate impacts and public health emergencies. Amazon Under Pressure: Brazil’s October Amazon fires rose 62% even as deforestation fell to a record low, renewing concern that fire is damaging already-scarred forests. Mining and Indigenous Rights: Brazil’s Supreme Court suspended Belo Sun’s mine permit, a major victory for Indigenous resistance. Yucatán Water: Greenpeace reports fecal contamination in drinking water and sinkholes, linking the pollution to expanding illegal pig farming.

Extreme Weather: The UN warns that El Niño could reach unprecedented strength, with Pacific temperatures far above past records. Latin America may see heavier rain, while the event is expected to bring severe weather shifts worldwide. Water Quality: Greenpeace found fecal bacteria in all 17 water samples tested near Mérida, with several showing heavy contamination. The group urged a halt to new and expanded industrial livestock operations; the tests could not identify whether pollution came from farms or sewage. Amazon Protection: Colombia received $22.4 million in international support to protect the Amazon, while Brazil plans an AI system to monitor forests. But fires burning in previously damaged areas may escape satellite detection despite record-low deforestation. Mining and Indigenous Rights: Brazil’s Supreme Court temporarily suspended Belo Sun’s Volta Grande gold-project license pending court approval of an agreement with Indigenous affairs agency FUNAI. Environmental Accountability: A human rights body called for oversight of technology used in environmental crimes across Latin America.

Amazon Watch: Brazil plans to use AI to monitor forests, map fire damage and track carbon stocks. The need is urgent: Amazon deforestation fell to 3,335 square kilometres, its lowest level since 1988, but fires have surged, and satellites may miss burns beneath forest cover. Jaguar Corridors: GPS data from 99 jaguars has mapped potential routes from Mexico to Argentina, including links researchers say could already be lost. The findings can help guide conservation across the species’ range. Yucatán Water: Tests at 17 sites found severe fecal and chemical contamination in wells and cenotes, with illegal industrial pig farms identified as a contributing threat to the Maya rainforest’s vulnerable groundwater. Biodiversity Summit: COP17 delegates face a global review of biodiversity targets as conservation funding lags; advocates are urging governments to learn from women-led initiatives.

Biodiversity: Colombia and Armenia launched a global coalition to help endangered species recover in the wild. Brazil, Mexico and Peru are among its 16 founding members. Caribbean Discovery: Researchers identified a new planthopper genus and species on Curaçao, Aruba and Bonaire, highlighting how much island biodiversity remains undocumented. Amazon Under Pressure: Brazil’s Amazon deforestation has fallen to its lowest level since 1988, but fires are spreading as El Niño strengthens, and the approaching election could shape whether progress lasts. El Niño Risks: Ocean levels in parts of the eastern Pacific are already up to 40 centimetres above normal. Scientists warn the developing Super El Niño could worsen flooding and erosion from Mexico to Ecuador. Tipping Points: Climate scientist Johan Rockström warns that damage to the Amazon and coral reefs may be nearing irreversible thresholds as global warming accelerates.

Mexico’s Pacific: Forecasters are watching a potential tropical system south of Mexico as Tropical Storm Trudy lingers nearby, with the region’s unusually active basin fueled by a brewing El Niño. Urban Nature: A survey of four Cancun cenotes found 17 phytoplankton and protist species, adding 11 taxa to the Yucatán’s documented biota; researchers warn that litter and development threaten these little-studied waters. Amazon Floodplains: A new study finds more than 6% of Brazil’s Amazon wetlands have been cleared since 1984, with land designations shaping where losses occur. Brazil’s Forests: Amazon deforestation has fallen to its lowest level since 1988, but fires, El Niño and the looming election put those gains at risk. Caribbean Reefs: A global assessment finds 44% of reef-building coral species threatened with extinction, rising to 50% in the Atlantic, including Curaçao. Dutch researchers also warn that extreme heat, heavy rain and rising seas put Caribbean health, reefs and infrastructure at risk. Border Pollution: San Diego County named Bridget Premont its first pollution crisis chief to coordinate the response to Tijuana River sewage, a crisis estimated to cost the regional economy up to $503.5 million annually.

El Niño Watch: Agencies agree the current El Niño is very strong but differ on how it ranks historically; they use different measures, and its final strength will be clearer after it ends. Amazon Forests: Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon fell 42% to its lowest level since 1988, but the coming election and El Niño-related fire risks could threaten progress. Carbon Finance: Google and McKinsey will buy 320,000 tonnes of carbon-removal credits over 10 years to help restore degraded pasture in the Amazon and Cerrado using tree-rich cattle systems. Wildlife: Paraguay joined a four-country effort to protect jaguars, as Colombia and Armenia launched a global alliance to speed recovery of endangered species. At COP17, governments face warnings that they are off track on nearly all global nature targets.

Climate Finance: Mexico’s draft 2027 budget cuts climate spending by about 52 billion pesos from this year’s allocation, raising questions about how the country will meet its commitments ahead of COP31. Wildlife: Fishing gear kills dolphins, porpoises and seabirds across Latin America. Researchers are seeking ways to protect marine life while supporting coastal livelihoods; reported losses include more than 200 Guiana dolphins a year in Lake Maracaibo. Amazon: Indigenous leaders are urging the UN to confront criminal networks threatening the forest. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Amazon deforestation fell 42% to a record low, though fires linked to El Niño remain a growing concern. Extreme Weather: El Niño-driven downpours have flooded parts of South America, affecting communities in Paraguay and Argentina as the region braces for further climate shocks.

Amazon Crime: Indigenous leaders from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are heading to a UN conference in Vienna to push governments to target the financial networks behind illegal mining, logging and drug trafficking, and give Indigenous communities a stronger role in protecting their lands. Canal’s Water Cost: A planned reservoir in Panama would flood more than 11,000 acres and displace at least 1,600 people to secure water for the canal, including communities and cemeteries along the Indio River. Waste Crisis: Argentina generates at least 517,000 tonnes of electronic waste a year but recovers only 3%, highlighting a growing recycling challenge. Forest Gains, Fire Risks: Brazil says Amazon deforestation fell 42% to its lowest level since 1988, even as fires and suspected arson threaten the forest. El Niño Floods: Heavy rains have flooded parts of South America, forcing evacuations in Paraguay and Argentina as the powerful climate pattern intensifies.

Amazon Fires: NASA satellite monitoring shows fires surging across Brazil’s central and eastern Amazon, with El Niño-linked drought driving smoke over areas near Manaus and Santarém. Forest Loss: Brazil says Amazon deforestation fell 42% to its lowest level since 1988, a major gain even as fires threaten the forest. In the Chaco, meanwhile, 1,800 hectares of native forest were reportedly cleared beside a provincial park. Flood Emergency: El Niño-driven Paraná River flooding has affected 2,000 people in Paraguay and forced 222 evacuations in Argentina’s Corrientes province. Oil Legacy: Guatemala is seeking bids to close and decommission the former Xan oilfield inside the Maya Biosphere Reserve, including plugging wells and reducing environmental risks. Climate Finance: Antigua and Barbuda is working with the OECS to strengthen its ability to secure funding for resilience projects.

Amazon Forests: Brazil says deforestation fell 42% to 3,335 square kilometres in the year to July, the lowest since records began in 1988. The milestone comes days before a presidential runoff that could shift forest policy. Floods and El Niño: Rising Paraná waters have displaced families in Paraguay and Argentina, with about 2,000 people affected in Paraguay and 222 evacuated in Corrientes. Forecasters warn El Niño could intensify extreme rain across South America. Chaco Clearing: Conservationists report 1,800 hectares of native forest cleared beside Argentina’s Loro Hablador Provincial Park, despite protections against deforestation. Wildlife Recovery: Colombia and Armenia launched a coalition to restore endangered species, backed by a separate $500 million initiative targeting 100 species in 30 countries. Caribbean Energy: Nevis’s premier urged greater energy independence, highlighting a planned 30-megawatt geothermal plant to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.